Rapid Vienna 3-0 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt meet at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Allianz Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Rapid Vienna, 1.60 for Austria Klagenfurt — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Rapid Vienna — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 67% and Austria Klagenfurt 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 57% | Austria Klagenfurt 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.41 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.033 / defence 1.237 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.952 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.294. Data: 21 Rapid Vienna games / 21 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 33% | Draw 28% | Austria Klagenfurt 38%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Klagenfurt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Klagenfurt are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 33% | Draw 28% | Austria Klagenfurt 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.41 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.033 / def 1.237 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.952 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Austria Klagenfurt xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Rapid Vienna 3 - 0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 33% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.03x the league average against Austria Klagenfurt's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (0.95x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
33%
3.00
28%
3.55
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.93
1.52
Austria Klagenfurt xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.52 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 7D 7L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.43 for Austria Klagenfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 5W 1D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.48 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 games (1.33 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 9D 5L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.60 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
3
Draws
3
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Rapid Vienna 2-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 50%, Austria Klagenfurt 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Rapid Vienna and 60% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rapid Vienna's games and 60% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 60% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Austria Klagenfurt 3-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.41 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.52 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Klagenfurt landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 1.24 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.95 / defence 1.17, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 33% | Draw 28% | Austria Klagenfurt 38%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rapid Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 57%, Austria Klagenfurt 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.33 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.