Lask Linz 3-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sturm Graz — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 2.10 PPG versus Sturm Graz's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lask Linz have won 0, Sturm Graz 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 61% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 43% | Sturm Graz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 0.98 xG and Sturm Graz 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.008 / defence 0.604 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.354. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Lask Linz's defence rating of 0.604 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Lask Linz games / 34 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 36% | Draw 35% | Sturm Graz 30%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Sturm Graz 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 30% | Sturm Graz 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 36% | Draw 35% | Sturm Graz 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Lask Linz 0.98 / Sturm Graz 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.008 / def 0.604 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sturm Graz xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Lask Linz 3 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 36% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (1 meetings): Lask Linz 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
36%
2.81
35%
2.88
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
1.85
0.87
Sturm Graz xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 13.7 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.87 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 20W 16D 8L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 28W 9D 7L from 44 games, 2.11 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.73 PPG, Sturm Graz on 2.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.95 PPG from 21 outings (12W 5D 4L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 12W 6D 3L from 21 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.75 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 16D 8L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 28W 9D 7L in their last 44 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.95 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 52%, Sturm Graz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lask Linz) and 48% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lask Linz's games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lask Linz's recent games and 48% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sturm Graz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Sturm Graz 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 0.98 xG and Sturm Graz 0.87 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.01 / defence 0.60 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 36% | Draw 35% | Sturm Graz 30%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 43%, Sturm Graz 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.73 PPG, Sturm Graz 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.