Lask Linz 2-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SCR Altach make the trip to Raiffeisen Arena to face Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lask Linz have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's home record at Raiffeisen Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Lask Linz, 0.90 for SCR Altach — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Lask Linz have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, SCR Altach in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 48% versus SCR Altach 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 41% | SCR Altach 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.36 xG and SCR Altach 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.860 / defence 1.057 | SCR Altach attack 0.584 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.238. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing Lask Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Lask Linz games / 22 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 51% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 21%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 4.76. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 20% | SCR Altach 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 51% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Lask Linz 1.36 / SCR Altach 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.860 / def 1.057 | SCR Altach attack 0.584 / def 1.380 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.76
SCR Altach xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Lask Linz 2 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 51% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Lask Linz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (0.86) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.58x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.58
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.13
0.76
SCR Altach xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
5%
18.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.76 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lask Linz's recent record stands at 7W 10D 10L from 27 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 15L across 27 games — 0.81 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Lask Linz against 0.81 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lask Linz have managed 4W 4D 5L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 4W 2D 7L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.63 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 7W 10D 10L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 5W 7D 15L in their last 27 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.23 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, SCR Altach have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Lask Linz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Lask Linz) and 31% (SCR Altach) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lask Linz) and 54% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SCR Altach in 31%; Lask Linz have failed to score in 38% of games; SCR Altach in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 31% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lask Linz's recent games and 54% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out SCR Altach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat SCR Altach 2-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Relegation Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.36 xG and SCR Altach 0.76 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against SCR Altach attack 0.58 / defence 1.38, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 51% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 21%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 41%, SCR Altach 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.15 PPG, SCR Altach 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.