Lask Linz 3-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lask Linz face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SCR Altach make the trip to Raiffeisen Arena to face Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lask Linz have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz's home record at Raiffeisen Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Lask Linz's favour (2.60 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Lask Linz winning.
The historical record gives Lask Linz a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 57% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 60% | SCR Altach 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.60 xG and SCR Altach 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.297 / defence 0.932 | SCR Altach attack 0.739 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.160. Lask Linz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Lask Linz games / 26 SCR Altach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 55% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 17%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | SCR Altach 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lask Linz (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 70% | SCR Altach 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 55% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Lask Linz 1.60 / SCR Altach 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.297 / def 0.932 | SCR Altach attack 0.739 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.80
SCR Altach xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Lask Linz 3 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 55% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lask Linz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
Record (9 meetings): Lask Linz 5W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 2W.
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (1.30) and SCR Altach's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.74x) against Lask Linz's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
The sample (25/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.65
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.40
0.80
SCR Altach xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
3%
28.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.80 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lask Linz's recent record stands at 20W 7D 8L from 35 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 13L across 35 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lask Linz have managed 12W 3D 2L from 17 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 1W 6D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SCR Altach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.09 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 7D 8L in their last 35 games (1.91 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 10W 12D 13L in their last 35 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.29 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lask Linz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 3-0 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, SCR Altach have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Lask Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 59%, SCR Altach 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Lask Linz) and 47% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; SCR Altach in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 35% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Lask Linz's matches and 47% of SCR Altach's.
Do Lask Linz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat SCR Altach 3-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.60 xG and SCR Altach 0.80 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.30 / defence 0.93 against SCR Altach attack 0.74 / defence 0.85, drawn from 25/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 55% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 17%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 60%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
SCR Altach's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.