Grazer AK 2-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grazer AK face WSG Wattens.

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Analysis

WSG Wattens make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Grazer AK in Bundesliga (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Grazer AK have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Grazer AK have posted 0W 3D 2L from their last 5 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

WSG Wattens's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

WSG Wattens's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Grazer AK, 0.80 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Aug 2024, ended Grazer AK 0–0 WSG Wattens — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 75% versus WSG Wattens 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 50% | WSG Wattens 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.30 xG and WSG Wattens 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.767 / defence 1.250 | WSG Wattens attack 0.971 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.111. Grazer AK's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.30. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing WSG Wattens's projected output up. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 12 games and WSG Wattens's last 34.

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 35% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 37%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.89 | Draw 3.49 | WSG Wattens 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Grazer AK's last 5 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 80% (last 5 home games) | WSG Wattens 50% (last 10 away games).

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