Grazer AK 1-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grazer AK host Wolfsberger AC at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 2W 5D 3L at Merkur-Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolfsberger AC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Grazer AK, 2 for Wolfsberger AC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 3–4 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Grazer AK in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 60% and Wolfsberger AC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 52% | Wolfsberger AC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.12 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.912 / defence 1.108 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.121 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.224. Data: 30 Grazer AK games / 30 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 28% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 46%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 2.17. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Grazer AK 50% | Wolfsberger AC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 28% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Grazer AK 1.12 / Wolfsberger AC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.912 / def 1.108 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.121 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Wolfsberger AC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Grazer AK 1 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 28% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (2 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 0 | Wolfsberger AC 2W.
What form are Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grazer AK's attack rating (0.91) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.92
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.65
1.52
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
6%
16.30
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.52 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 5W 18D 17L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 20W 9D 11L from 40 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (3W 9D 7L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 9W 6D 4L from 19 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.82 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 5W 18D 17L in their last 40 games (0.82 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.95 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Grazer AK or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grazer AK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Grazer AK's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC?
From 7 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Grazer AK 0-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 58%, Wolfsberger AC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Grazer AK) and 53% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 32%; Grazer AK have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Grazer AK's games and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Grazer AK's recent games and 53% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Grazer AK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Grazer AK 1-3 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.12 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 28% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 46%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 52%, Wolfsberger AC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Grazer AK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.