Grazer AK 1-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SCR Altach at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Full Analysis

Merkur Arena plays host to Grazer AK versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 3). Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Grazer AK (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Grazer AK have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SCR Altach have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, SCR Altach have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SCR Altach are 0.50 PPG clear of Grazer AK over their recent games (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Grazer AK edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Feb 2025, ended Grazer AK 2–1 SCR Altach — a Grazer AK win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 67% and SCR Altach 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 62% | SCR Altach 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.44 xG and SCR Altach 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.738 / defence 1.251 | SCR Altach attack 0.969 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Grazer AK's attack rating of 0.738 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.44. SCR Altach's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Grazer AK's projected output up. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SCR Altach's projected output up. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 22 games and SCR Altach's last 44.

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 35% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 35%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.90 | Draw 3.29 | SCR Altach 2.85. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Grazer AK 35% and SCR Altach 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Grazer AK's last 10 home games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 60% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 50% (last 10 away games).

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