Grazer AK 3-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grazer AK and FC BW Linz meet at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's home record at Merkur-Arena: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC BW Linz (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.00 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Grazer AK, 1 for FC BW Linz and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with FC BW Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 61% versus FC BW Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 54% | FC BW Linz 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.46 xG and FC BW Linz 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.945 / defence 1.000 | FC BW Linz attack 0.699 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.402. Data: 36 Grazer AK games / 36 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 48% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 25%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | FC BW Linz 4.00. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Grazer AK as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 60% | FC BW Linz 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 48% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Grazer AK 1.46 / FC BW Linz 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.945 / def 1.000 | FC BW Linz attack 0.699 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
0.98
FC BW Linz xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Grazer AK 3 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz part of?
Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 48% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Grazer AK and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and FC BW Linz?
Record (3 meetings): Grazer AK 1W | Draws 1 | FC BW Linz 1W.
What form are Grazer AK and FC BW Linz in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 0.94x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.70x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.78
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.44
0.98
FC BW Linz xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
6%
16.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Grazer AK and 0.98 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grazer AK come into this having played 46 games, going 7W 19D 20L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 1.04 PPG from 46 outings (14W 6D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.04 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Grazer AK's home form reads 4W 10D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.78 points per game from 23 outings (4W 6D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grazer AK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.09 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 7W 19D 20L in their last 46 games (0.87 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 14W 6D 26L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or FC BW Linz away?
Grazer AK's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.96 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Grazer AK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 13 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Grazer AK
1
Draws
1
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and FC BW Linz?
From 6 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 4, FC BW Linz have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when FC BW Linz 0-3 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and FC BW Linz?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 61%, FC BW Linz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Grazer AK) and 52% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: Grazer AK have failed to score in 30% of games; FC BW Linz in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play FC BW Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Grazer AK's games and 52% of FC BW Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Grazer AK's recent games and 52% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC BW Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK beat FC BW Linz 3-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.46 xG and FC BW Linz 0.98 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Grazer AK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against FC BW Linz attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 48% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 25%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 54%, FC BW Linz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.87 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.