FC BW Linz 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Red Bull Salzburg at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC BW Linz stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's home record at Hofmann Personal Stadion: 2W 5D 2L from 9 Bundesliga appearances (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Red Bull Salzburg — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC BW Linz, 0 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with FC BW Linz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC BW Linz in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 50% versus Red Bull Salzburg 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 0.84 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.857 / defence 1.040 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.178 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.257. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 FC BW Linz games / 40 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 53%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.89. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC BW Linz 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG FC BW Linz 0.84 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.857 / def 1.040 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.178 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Red Bull Salzburg xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
FC BW Linz 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 20% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (1 meetings): FC BW Linz 1W | Draws 0 | Red Bull Salzburg 0W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 0.86x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
20%
5.01
27%
3.74
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.38
1.54
Red Bull Salzburg xG
5.01
20%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
4%
23.38
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 14.2 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.54 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC BW Linz's recent record stands at 4W 6D 8L from 18 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 2L across 18 games — 2.22 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC BW Linz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC BW Linz have managed 2W 5D 2L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 6W 3D 0L across 9 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.94 scored and 0.61 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 12W 4D 2L in their last 18 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.22 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.33 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
4
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 8 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 2, Red Bull Salzburg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when FC BW Linz 0-2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC BW Linz) and 56% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 56%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 56% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 1-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 0.84 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.54 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.18 / defence 0.78, drawn from 18/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 53%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.