FC BW Linz 1-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC BW Linz face Austria Vienna.

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Fixture Analysis

FC BW Linz welcome Austria Vienna to Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 10). Kick-off is Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

FC BW Linz — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Austria Vienna have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC BW Linz at 1.30 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FC BW Linz have won 0, Austria Vienna 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Mar 2024, ended FC BW Linz 0–0 Austria Vienna — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 48% versus Austria Vienna 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 42% | Austria Vienna 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and Austria Vienna 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.837 / defence 1.176 | Austria Vienna attack 0.998 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 22 games and Austria Vienna's last 44.

Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 35%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.87 | Draw 3.28 | Austria Vienna 2.89. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 31%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — FC BW Linz 35% and Austria Vienna 35%, with the draw at 31%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC BW Linz's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 60% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 30% (last 10 away games).

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