Austria Vienna 2-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees WSG Wattens travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Austria Vienna are significantly better at Generali Arena than their overall form suggests.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.40 (WSG Wattens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 66% and WSG Wattens 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 43% | WSG Wattens 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.61 xG and WSG Wattens 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.964 / defence 0.879 | WSG Wattens attack 0.957 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.240. Data: 25 Austria Vienna games / 25 WSG Wattens games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 23%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 4.35. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 80% | WSG Wattens 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Austria Vienna 1.61 / WSG Wattens 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.964 / def 0.879 | WSG Wattens attack 0.957 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.04
WSG Wattens xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna 2 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens part of?
Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 49% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.65
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.65
1.04
WSG Wattens xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
5%
21.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.04 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Vienna come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 14D 10L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (12W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.34 PPG, WSG Wattens on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Vienna's home form reads 6W 8D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (5W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.46 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 11W 14D 10L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 12W 8D 15L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or WSG Wattens away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.53 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Austria Vienna 0-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 76%, WSG Wattens 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Austria Vienna) and 71% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Austria Vienna's games and 47% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Austria Vienna's matches and 71% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out WSG Wattens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat WSG Wattens 2-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.61 xG and WSG Wattens 1.04 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against WSG Wattens attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 23%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 43%, WSG Wattens 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.34 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.