Austria Vienna 2-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Austria Vienna face Sturm Graz.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 25 September 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Current Form

Austria Vienna's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sturm Graz (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) — Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sturm Graz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Austria Vienna edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Austria Vienna 1–0 Sturm Graz — a Austria Vienna win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 47% versus Sturm Graz 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 47% | Sturm Graz 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.46 xG and Sturm Graz 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.189 / defence 0.901 | Sturm Graz attack 0.988 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.201. Sturm Graz bring a tight defence (rating 0.761, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Austria Vienna's projected output down. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 28 games and Sturm Graz's last 28.

Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 27%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.23 | Draw 3.50 | Sturm Graz 3.77. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 60% (last 10 away games).

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