Austria Vienna 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Austria Vienna at Generali Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.60 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rapid Vienna in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 62% and Rapid Vienna 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 38% | Rapid Vienna 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.34 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.005 / defence 1.032 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.943 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.239. Data: 22 Austria Vienna games / 22 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Rapid Vienna 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 70% | Rapid Vienna 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Austria Vienna 1.34 / Rapid Vienna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.005 / def 1.032 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.943 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Austria Vienna 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 40% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.00) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.94x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.76
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.55
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.21 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 9W 12D 8L from 29 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 9L across 29 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.38 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 5W 6D 3L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 3W 6D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.59 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 72%.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 9W 12D 8L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 10W 10D 9L in their last 29 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.50 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Austria Vienna, 86% for Rapid Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Austria Vienna) and 57% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Austria Vienna's games and 86% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 57% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 8, as Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.34 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 33%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 38%, Rapid Vienna 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.34 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.