Austria Lustenau 2-4 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 39%, yet in-form Austria Lustenau provide a compelling counter-argument — this Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 8 sees WSG Wattens travel to Planet Pure Stadion to take on Austria Lustenau. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Planet Pure Stadion, Austria Lustenau have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Austria Lustenau are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Austria Lustenau have won 2, WSG Wattens 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Austria Lustenau winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Austria Lustenau trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
WSG Wattens trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 55% versus WSG Wattens 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 55% | WSG Wattens 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.36 xG and WSG Wattens 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 1.019 / defence 1.126 | WSG Wattens attack 0.963 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.338. Data: 22 Austria Lustenau games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 35% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 39%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | WSG Wattens 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Lustenau (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 50% | WSG Wattens 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 35% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.36 / WSG Wattens 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 1.019 / def 1.126 | WSG Wattens attack 0.963 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.45
WSG Wattens xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Lustenau 2 - 4 WSG Wattens.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens part of?
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 35% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Lustenau 2W | Draws 0 | WSG Wattens 1W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 1.02x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
35%
2.82
25%
3.97
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.82
1.45
WSG Wattens xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.05
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.45 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 9D 10L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.34 PPG, WSG Wattens on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 6W 4D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.34 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Current Season
WSG Wattens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 10W 9D 10L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or WSG Wattens away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.57 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
1
Draws
4
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when WSG Wattens 0-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 57%, WSG Wattens 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Austria Lustenau and 64% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Austria Lustenau's games and 64% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 64% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Austria Lustenau 2-4 at Planet Pure Stadion, Relegation Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.36 xG and WSG Wattens 1.45 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 1.02 / defence 1.13 against WSG Wattens attack 0.96 / defence 0.97, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 35% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 39%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 55%, WSG Wattens 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.34 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.