Austria Lustenau 0-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz meet at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 4W 3D 2L at Planet Pure Stadion — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Austria Lustenau are significantly better at Planet Pure Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sturm Graz are 1.20 PPG clear of Austria Lustenau in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Austria Lustenau lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 58% versus Sturm Graz 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 58% | Sturm Graz 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.07 xG and Sturm Graz 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.965 / defence 1.047 | Sturm Graz attack 1.048 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.323. Data: 19 Austria Lustenau games / 41 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 28% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 46%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Sturm Graz 2.17. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 56% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 28% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.07 / Sturm Graz 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.965 / def 1.047 | Sturm Graz attack 1.048 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Sturm Graz xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 28% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.96x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.05x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 19/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
28%
3.60
26%
3.81
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.52
1.45
Sturm Graz xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
6%
15.40
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.45 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Austria Lustenau have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 5W 6D 8L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 11W 6D 2L from 19 games, 2.05 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Lustenau.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Lustenau have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Austria Lustenau are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 4W 5D 0L from 9 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.58 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 11W 6D 2L in their last 19 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.67 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Austria Lustenau or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Lustenau have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
0
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 25 November 2023, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 56%, Sturm Graz 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Austria Lustenau) and 33% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Austria Lustenau's games and 67% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Austria Lustenau's recent games and 33% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Lustenau 0-2 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.07 xG and Sturm Graz 1.45 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Austria Lustenau fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Sturm Graz attack 1.05 / defence 0.82, drawn from 19/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 28% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 46%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 58%, Sturm Graz 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.