Austria Lustenau 0-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Austria Lustenau face SCR Altach.

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Fixture Analysis

Austria Lustenau welcome SCR Altach to ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 4). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Lustenau stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Austria Lustenau's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have recorded 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, SCR Altach have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Austria Lustenau) versus 0.90 (SCR Altach). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Austria Lustenau have won 3, SCR Altach 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2023, ended Austria Lustenau 0–3 SCR Altach — a SCR Altach win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Austria Lustenau trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

SCR Altach trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 47% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 53% | SCR Altach 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.24 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.854 / defence 1.342 | SCR Altach attack 0.916 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Austria Lustenau's defence rating of 1.342 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SCR Altach's projected output up. Data: built from Austria Lustenau's last 44 games and SCR Altach's last 44.

Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 35% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 35%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.86 | Draw 3.35 | SCR Altach 2.84. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Austria Lustenau 35% and SCR Altach 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Austria Lustenau 40% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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