Austria Lustenau 1-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Austria Lustenau at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Austria Lustenau welcome SCR Altach to Planet Pure Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Lustenau stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's home record at Planet Pure Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Austria Lustenau carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Austria Lustenau, 0 for SCR Altach and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 3–0 with Austria Lustenau winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Austria Lustenau trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
SCR Altach trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 52% versus SCR Altach 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 52% | SCR Altach 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.87 xG and SCR Altach 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 1.059 / defence 1.114 | SCR Altach attack 0.782 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Austria Lustenau's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Austria Lustenau games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 54% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 24%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | SCR Altach 4.17. Austria Lustenau hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Lustenau 50% | SCR Altach 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 54% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.87 / SCR Altach 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 1.059 / def 1.114 | SCR Altach attack 0.782 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SCR Altach xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Austria Lustenau 1 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach part of?
Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 54% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Lustenau 2W | Draws 0 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.43
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.03
1.16
SCR Altach xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
4%
27.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.16 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 6D 9L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.87 PPG from 23 outings (5W 5D 13L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Lustenau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.00 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 5W 5D 13L in their last 23 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or SCR Altach away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.64 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, SCR Altach have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 54%, SCR Altach 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Austria Lustenau and 82% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 27% of games; SCR Altach in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 54% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 82% of SCR Altach's.
Do Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Lustenau edge out SCR Altach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Planet Pure Stadion, Relegation Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.87 xG and SCR Altach 1.16 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Austria Lustenau fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against SCR Altach attack 0.78 / defence 1.28, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 54% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 24%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 52%, SCR Altach 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Lustenau arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.