Austria Lustenau 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 40%, yet in-form Austria Lustenau provide a compelling counter-argument — this Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Planet Pure Stadion to face Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - Final. The match kicks off on Thursday 8 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Planet Pure Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Austria Lustenau's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Austria Vienna in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Austria Lustenau 1W, Austria Vienna 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Austria Lustenau winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Austria Lustenau half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 61% and Austria Vienna 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Lustenau 58% | Austria Vienna 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.46 xG and Austria Vienna 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 1.001 / defence 1.131 | Austria Vienna attack 1.026 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.340. Data: 22 Austria Lustenau games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 36% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 40%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Vienna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Lustenau (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 60% | Austria Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - Final | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 36% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.46 / Austria Vienna 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 1.001 / def 1.131 | Austria Vienna attack 1.026 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Austria Vienna xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 8 June 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Austria Lustenau 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna is a Conference League Play-offs - Final fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 36% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Lustenau 1W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 0W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.03x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
36%
2.79
24%
4.13
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.02
1.55
Austria Vienna xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
8%
13.19
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.55 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Austria Lustenau have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 12W 10D 11L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Austria Vienna's form line: 12W 10D 11L from 33 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Austria Lustenau against 1.39 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Lustenau have posted 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (7W 4D 5L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 6D 6L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Lustenau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.79 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 73%.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 12W 10D 11L in their last 33 games (1.39 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 12W 10D 11L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.56 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Austria Vienna won 5-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Austria Lustenau
3
Draws
3
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Austria Lustenau 2-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Austria Lustenau, 75% for Austria Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Austria Lustenau and 81% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Austria Lustenau's games and 75% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 81% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Planet Pure Stadion, Conference League Play-offs - Final, as Austria Lustenau and Austria Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.46 xG and Austria Vienna 1.55 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against Austria Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 36% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 40%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 58%, Austria Vienna 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.39 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.