Austria Klagenfurt 1-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wörthersee Stadion plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 25 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 0.35 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.362 / away 1.772. Data: 0 Austria Klagenfurt games / 0 Wolfsberger AC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 5% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 69%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 20.00 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (69%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Austria Klagenfurt's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 5% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 27% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 0.35 / Wolfsberger AC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.362 / away 1.772 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.35
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Wolfsberger AC xG
27%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Klagenfurt 1 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 5% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 69% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (0.85) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.85x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (18.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
5%
21.41
26%
3.87
69%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
18.6%
Away win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.35
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.09
1.73
Wolfsberger AC xG
21.41
5%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.44
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.73
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
70%
1.42
Win to Nil
1%
121.03
49%
2.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 21.5 | 18.6 | 10.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 0.35 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.73 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Pre-Season
Wolfsberger AC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 4-0 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
5
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wörthersee Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 0.35 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.73 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 5% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 69%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 69%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.