Austria Klagenfurt 3-3 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker meet at Wörthersee Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wörthersee Stadion, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 3D 0L this season (5 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Austria Klagenfurt are significantly better at Wörthersee Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Admira Wacker's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Klagenfurt register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Admira Wacker in 83%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Austria Klagenfurt, 1 for Admira Wacker and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 0–4 with Admira Wacker winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Austria Klagenfurt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Admira Wacker goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 83% and Admira Wacker 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 58% | Admira Wacker 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.77 xG and Admira Wacker 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.990 / defence 1.176 | Admira Wacker attack 0.827 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.349. Admira Wacker bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Austria Klagenfurt games / 12 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 46% | Draw 27% | Admira Wacker 27%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Admira Wacker 3.70. Austria Klagenfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 100% | Admira Wacker 83% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 46% | Draw 27% | Admira Wacker 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.77 / Admira Wacker 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.990 / def 1.176 | Admira Wacker attack 0.827 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Admira Wacker xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker?
Austria Klagenfurt 3 - 3 Admira Wacker.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 46% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 0W | Draws 0 | Admira Wacker 1W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Klagenfurt's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Admira Wacker's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Admira Wacker's attack (0.83x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
46%
2.15
27%
3.71
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
3.09
1.31
Admira Wacker xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
5%
22.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.31 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Austria Klagenfurt come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 5D 4L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Admira Wacker sit at 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.08 for Admira Wacker. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Austria Klagenfurt's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Austria Klagenfurt are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Admira Wacker have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Klagenfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Admira Wacker
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Admira Wacker away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.80 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Austria Klagenfurt
1
Draws
1
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker?
From 2 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 0, Admira Wacker have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2021, when Austria Klagenfurt 3-3 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker?
Admira Wacker have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Austria Klagenfurt, 80% for Admira Wacker — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Austria Klagenfurt and 100% for Admira Wacker. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 80% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 100% of Admira Wacker's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wörthersee Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Austria Klagenfurt and Admira Wacker drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.77 xG and Admira Wacker 1.31 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Admira Wacker outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Admira Wacker attack 0.83 / defence 1.42, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 46% | Draw 27% | Admira Wacker 27%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 58%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.17 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.