Sharjah FC 0-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sharjah FC 2.30 PPG, Al Wahda FC 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sharjah FC, 1 for Al Wahda FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 39% versus Al Wahda FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 58% | Al Wahda FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.65 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.113 / defence 0.756 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.460 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.290. Al Wahda FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Sharjah FC games / 33 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 43% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al Wahda FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 30% | Al Wahda FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 43% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Sharjah FC 1.65 / Al Wahda FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.113 / def 0.756 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.460 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Al Wahda FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Sharjah FC 0 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 43% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
Record (2 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
43%
2.33
24%
4.20
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.07
1.43
Al Wahda FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
6%
15.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.43 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 22W 5D 6L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 19W 9D 5L from 33 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 2.15 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.44 PPG from 16 outings (13W 0D 3L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 9W 5D 2L from 16 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 2.09 scored and 1.03 conceded. Al Wahda FC's attacking output running into Sharjah FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC in 64%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 22W 5D 6L in their last 33 games (2.15 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 19W 9D 5L in their last 33 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.44 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al Wahda FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
4
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 31%, Al Wahda FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Sharjah FC and 75% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 75% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Sharjah FC's matches and 75% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wahda FC defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Sharjah FC 0-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.65 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.43 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sharjah FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.76 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.46 / defence 0.92, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 43% | Draw 24% | Al Wahda FC 33%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al Wahda FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 58%, Al Wahda FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 2.15 PPG, Al Wahda FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.