Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Baniyas SC to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Rashid Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baniyas SC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 1.00 PPG versus Baniyas SC's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 1 for Baniyas SC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Baniyas SC trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% versus Baniyas SC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42% | Baniyas SC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.60 xG and Baniyas SC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.943 / defence 1.232 | Baniyas SC attack 0.840 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.340. Baniyas SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 24 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 24% | Baniyas SC 33%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Baniyas SC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% | Baniyas SC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 24% | Baniyas SC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.60 / Baniyas SC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.943 / def 1.232 | Baniyas SC attack 0.840 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Baniyas SC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 43% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Record (1 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 1W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (0.94) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
43%
2.35
24%
4.13
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.99
1.39
Baniyas SC xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.39 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 10W 6D 8L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 8W 6D 10L from 24 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 1.50 PPG, Baniyas SC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (8W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.29 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 10W 6D 8L in their last 24 games (1.50 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Baniyas SC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.08 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Baniyas SC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 75%, Baniyas SC at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 58% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 58% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 58% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Baniyas SC 3-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.60 xG and Baniyas SC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Baniyas SC attack 0.84 / defence 1.37, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 24% | Baniyas SC 33%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42%, Baniyas SC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.50 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.