Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-3 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al Wahda FC to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 March 2022 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 7W 1D 0L at Rashid Stadium — 2.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 1L from 9 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Wahda FC — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 0, Al Wahda FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59% versus Al Wahda FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 35% | Al Wahda FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.29 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.214 / defence 1.080 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.035 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.191. Data: 17 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 17 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al Wahda FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 75% | Al Wahda FC 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.29 / Al Wahda FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.214 / def 1.080 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.035 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al Wahda FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 13:45 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 3 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 36% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Record (1 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0W | Draws 1 | Al Wahda FC 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.21) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.69
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.62
1.33
Al Wahda FC xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.33 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 8W 6D 3L from 17 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 1L across 17 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 1.76 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 2.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 7W 1D 0L from 8 games — 2.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 4W 3D 1L across 8 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.88 scored and 0.71 conceded. Al Wahda FC's attacking output running into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 8W 6D 3L in their last 17 games (1.76 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 10W 6D 1L in their last 17 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.75 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
6
Draws
1
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 75%, Al Wahda FC at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 50% (Al Wahda FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 62% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 50% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-3 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.29 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.21 / defence 1.08 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 36% | Draw 27% | Al Wahda FC 37%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 35%, Al Wahda FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.76 PPG, Al Wahda FC 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.