Khorfakkan 1-5 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khorfakkan face Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC meet at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 11 May 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khorfakkan have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Wasl FC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Khorfakkan, 2 for Al-Wasl FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 0–3 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 57% versus Al-Wasl FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 65% | Al-Wasl FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.29 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.820 / defence 1.070 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.095 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.430. Data: 51 Khorfakkan games / 51 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Wasl FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Wasl FC 2.13. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 40% | Al-Wasl FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 May 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Wasl FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Khorfakkan 1.29 / Al-Wasl FC 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.820 / def 1.070 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.095 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al-Wasl FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 11 May 2023 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Khorfakkan 1 - 5 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 30% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (3 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 2W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (1.09x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
30%
3.39
24%
4.17
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.97
1.68
Al-Wasl FC xG
3.39
30%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
6%
18.12
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.68 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 14W 11D 26L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 21W 17D 13L from 51 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (11W 4D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 10W 8D 7L from 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.63 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 14W 11D 26L in their last 51 games (1.04 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 21W 17D 13L in their last 51 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.48 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 1-5 on 11 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
3
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 3, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 48%, Al-Wasl FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Khorfakkan) and 48% (Al-Wasl FC).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC in 32%; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Khorfakkan's games and 64% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 48% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Wasl FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Khorfakkan 1-5 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.29 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.68 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Wasl FC 47%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 65%, Al-Wasl FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.