Khorfakkan 2-3 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Khorfakkan welcome Al-Dhafra to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 January 2026 at 12:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Dhafra — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra's away record: 0W 0D 5L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 1.10 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Khorfakkan, 1 for Al-Dhafra and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Khorfakkan trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Dhafra trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 60% versus Al-Dhafra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 70% | Al-Dhafra 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.20 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.045 / defence 1.154 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.814 / defence 1.617. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.326. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.617 — this is suppressing Khorfakkan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Khorfakkan games / 10 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 59% | Draw 20% | Al-Dhafra 21%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Dhafra 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Khorfakkan (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 80% | Al-Dhafra 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jan 2026, 12:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 59% | Draw 20% | Al-Dhafra 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Khorfakkan 2.20 / Al-Dhafra 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.045 / def 1.154 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.814 / def 1.617 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al-Dhafra xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 12:55 on Friday 2 January 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan 2 - 3 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 59% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
Record (4 meetings): Khorfakkan 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 1.04x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Dhafra's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
59%
1.69
20%
4.98
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.44
1.25
Al-Dhafra xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
11%
9.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
2%
43.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.25 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 3W 2D 5L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 6L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.10 PPG, Al-Dhafra on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 0W 0D 5L across 5 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Dhafra's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Khorfakkan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2021, when Khorfakkan won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al-Dhafra specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Khorfakkan
0
Draws
2
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
From 7 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 5, Al-Dhafra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 80%, Al-Dhafra 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Khorfakkan) and 40% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Dhafra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Khorfakkan's games and 40% of Al-Dhafra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 40% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Dhafra defy the odds to beat Khorfakkan 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Khorfakkan 2-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.20 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.25 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Dhafra outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.81 / defence 1.62, drawn from 36/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 59% | Draw 20% | Al-Dhafra 21%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al-Dhafra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 70%, Al-Dhafra 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.10 PPG, Al-Dhafra 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Dhafra win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.