Khorfakkan 2-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Khorfakkan welcome Ajman to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.29 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
Ajman — All Games: 3W 2D 2L from 7 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.57 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 0.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 1.29 PPG, Ajman 1.57 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 57% versus Ajman 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 71% | Ajman 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.10 xG and Ajman 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.032 / defence 0.975 | Ajman attack 0.800 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.324. Data: 7 Khorfakkan games / 7 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 35% | Draw 34% | Ajman 31%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Ajman 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 50% | Ajman 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 35% | Draw 34% | Ajman 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Khorfakkan 1.10 / Ajman 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.032 / def 0.975 | Ajman attack 0.800 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Ajman xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Ajman kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Ajman kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Khorfakkan 2 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Ajman part of?
Khorfakkan vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 35% chance of winning, Ajman a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Khorfakkan and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Ajman in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 0.86 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 1.03x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
35%
2.87
34%
2.97
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.13
1.03
Ajman xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.03 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 2W 3D 2L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman's form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.29 PPG, Ajman on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ajman have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.29 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Ajman in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Ajman in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Ajman have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Ajman away?
Khorfakkan's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 2.33 PPG; Ajman away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ajman in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
3
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Ajman have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ajman see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Khorfakkan 33% BTTS, Ajman 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Khorfakkan and 0% for Ajman.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Ajman in 33%; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 33% of games; Ajman in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 33% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 0% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Ajman tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajman in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Ajman 2-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.10 xG and Ajman 1.03 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Ajman attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 35% | Draw 34% | Ajman 31%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 71%, Ajman 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajman's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.29 PPG, Ajman 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.