Hatta SC 0-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baniyas SC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatta SC and Baniyas SC meet at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Hatta SC (all games): 1W 0D 6L across 7 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 2.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.43 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Hatta SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatta SC at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil.
Baniyas SC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baniyas SC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Baniyas SC are 0.77 PPG clear of Hatta SC in recent Pro League fixtures (1.20 vs 0.43). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Hatta SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Baniyas SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatta SC 43% versus Baniyas SC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatta SC 71% | Baniyas SC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatta SC 1.21 xG and Baniyas SC 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatta SC attack 0.537 / defence 1.391 | Baniyas SC attack 0.890 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.775. Hatta SC's attack strength of 0.537 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Baniyas SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Hatta SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Hatta SC games / 33 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatta SC 20% | Draw 20% | Baniyas SC 60%. Fair-value odds: Hatta SC 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Baniyas SC 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Baniyas SC (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baniyas SC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. This conflicts with form data: Hatta SC 0% | Baniyas SC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatta SC 20% | Draw 20% | Baniyas SC 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Hatta SC 1.21 / Baniyas SC 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hatta SC attack 0.537 / def 1.391 | Baniyas SC attack 0.890 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.775 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hatta SC xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Baniyas SC xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC?
Hatta SC 0 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC part of?
Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Hatta SC a 20% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hatta SC and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Baniyas SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatta SC and Baniyas SC in?
Hatta SC (all comps): 1W-0D-6L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 2.43 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hatta SC's attack at 0.54x the league average against Baniyas SC's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.89x) against Hatta SC's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.20.
These ratings are built from 7/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
20%
4.97
20%
4.97
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hatta SC xG
Total xG
3.41
2.20
Baniyas SC xG
4.97
20%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
11%
9.01
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
2%
44.72
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Hatta SC and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hatta SC and 2.20 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Hatta SC have picked up 0.43 PPG on a 1W 0D 6L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hatta SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baniyas SC's form line: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Baniyas SC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatta SC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hatta SC have posted 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That actually lags their 0.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baniyas SC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hatta SC are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.57 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatta SC
Early Season
Baniyas SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatta SC and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Hatta SC have gone 1W 0D 6L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatta SC at home or Baniyas SC away?
Hatta SC's home record (0.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatta SC at home: 0.00 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatta SC
0
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatta SC and Baniyas SC?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatta SC have won 0, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatta SC and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when Baniyas SC 4-2 Hatta SC.
Who has won more matches between Hatta SC and Baniyas SC?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hatta SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Hatta SC) and 67% (Baniyas SC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hatta SC and 100% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatta SC have failed to score in 100% of games; Baniyas SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatta SC home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatta SC play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hatta SC's recent matches and 67% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatta SC vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hatta SC's matches and 100% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Hatta SC and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Hatta SC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baniyas SC edge out Hatta SC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Hatta SC 0-1 at Hamdan Bin Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatta SC 1.21 xG and Baniyas SC 2.20 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hatta SC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Baniyas SC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatta SC attack 0.54 / defence 1.39 against Baniyas SC attack 0.89 / defence 1.34, drawn from 7/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatta SC 20% | Draw 20% | Baniyas SC 60%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatta SC 71%, Baniyas SC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatta SC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baniyas SC arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Hatta SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.