Dibba Al Hisn 0-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al Hisn vs Khorfakkan encounter.

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Analysis

Khorfakkan make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Dibba Al Hisn in Pro League (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Friday 4 April 2025 at 15:50 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Dibba Al Hisn have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Dibba Al Hisn have posted 2W 1D 6L from their last 9 home games — 0.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Khorfakkan (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Khorfakkan's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Khorfakkan are 0.80 PPG clear of Dibba Al Hisn over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Dibba Al Hisn's last 9 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) — Dibba Al Hisn have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Khorfakkan in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Dibba Al Hisn, 0 for Khorfakkan and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Dibba Al Hisn 1–1 Khorfakkan — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Dibba Al Hisn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al Hisn 68% and Khorfakkan 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al Hisn 63% | Khorfakkan 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dibba Al Hisn surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Khorfakkan have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 1.54 xG and Khorfakkan 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.890 / defence 1.406 | Khorfakkan attack 1.035 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.277. Dibba Al Hisn's defence rating of 1.406 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Khorfakkan's projected output up. Data: built from Dibba Al Hisn's last 19 games and Khorfakkan's last 45.

Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 32% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 45%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 3.11 | Draw 4.47 | Khorfakkan 2.20. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.54 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dibba Al Hisn's last 9 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dibba Al Hisn 67% (last 9 home games) | Khorfakkan 80% (last 10 away games).

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