Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dibba Al-Fujairah face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Dibba Al-Fujairah welcome Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 games at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium this term (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Dibba Al-Fujairah's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Dibba Al-Fujairah.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 0–7 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 63% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 53% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.70 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.859 / defence 1.078 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.440 / defence 0.586. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.361. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.586 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 45 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 11% | Draw 19% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 9.09 | Draw 5.26 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al-Fujairah 78% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 16 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 11% | Draw 19% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 44% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.70 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.859 / def 1.078 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.440 / def 0.586 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 16 March 2026 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 0 - 4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 11% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 70% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (3 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating (0.86) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.59), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
11%
8.98
19%
5.33
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
0 – 3
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.81
2.11
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
8.98
11%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
12%
8.26
50%
2.02
Win to Nil
1%
74.26
35%
2.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 2.11 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Dibba Al-Fujairah have picked up 0.74 PPG on a 3W 5D 11L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form line: 14W 4D 1L from 19 games, 2.42 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 1.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 7W 2D 0L from 9 away games — 2.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.32 scored and 0.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 63% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 3W 5D 11L in their last 19 games (0.74 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 14W 4D 1L in their last 19 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.89 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.56 PPG.
Have Dibba Al-Fujairah or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 63%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jan 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0
Draws
4
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 78%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 44% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 78% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 22% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 44% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 0-4 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.70 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.11 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 2.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.44 / defence 0.59, drawn from 19/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 11% | Draw 19% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.74. Form held, and they took the win. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.