Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-1 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dibba Al-Fujairah at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra meet at Dibba Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 May 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 2W 2D 6L at Dibba Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dibba Stadium this season.
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Dhafra have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dibba Al-Fujairah. A 1.10 PPG lead over Al-Dhafra (1.50 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dibba Al-Fujairah lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Al-Dhafra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dibba Al-Fujairah — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Dhafra — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 44% versus Al-Dhafra 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 40% | Al-Dhafra 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.31 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.730 / defence 0.989 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.728 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.435. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 51 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 43% | Draw 28% | Al-Dhafra 29%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Dhafra 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dibba Al-Fujairah are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dibba Al-Fujairah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al-Fujairah 40% | Al-Dhafra 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 43% | Draw 28% | Al-Dhafra 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.31 / Al-Dhafra 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.730 / def 0.989 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.728 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Dibba Al-Fujairah (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Dhafra xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 15:15 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 1 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 43% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dibba Al-Fujairah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra?
Record (1 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Dhafra 1W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack at 0.73x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.73x) against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 25/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dibba Al-Fujairah Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.61
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.35
1.03
Al-Dhafra xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.03 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent record stands at 5W 4D 16L from 25 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 20L across 25 games — 0.44 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Dibba Al-Fujairah against 0.44 for Al-Dhafra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dibba Al-Fujairah have managed 2W 2D 8L from 12 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Dhafra's away record stands at 0W 1D 11L across 12 trips, a 0.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dibba Al-Fujairah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 1.00 scored and 2.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 5W 4D 16L in their last 25 games (0.76 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 2D 20L in their last 25 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Dibba Al-Fujairah's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.67 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
2
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 1, Al-Dhafra have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra?
Al-Dhafra have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%, Al-Dhafra 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 58% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Dibba Al-Fujairah have failed to score in 42% of games; Al-Dhafra in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 42% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 58% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al-Dhafra drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.31 xG and Al-Dhafra 1.03 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.73 / defence 0.99 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 25/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 43% | Draw 28% | Al-Dhafra 29%, with Dibba Al-Fujairah to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 40%, Al-Dhafra 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.76 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.