Al Urooba 1-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Urooba host Khorfakkan at Dibba Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Urooba stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Al Urooba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Khorfakkan — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.70 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Urooba have won 0, Khorfakkan 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.81 xG and Khorfakkan 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.789 / defence 1.483 | Khorfakkan attack 0.934 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.791 / away 1.521. Al Urooba's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Al Urooba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Al Urooba games / 28 Khorfakkan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 34% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 2.94 | Draw 4.76 | Khorfakkan 2.22. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 34% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Al Urooba 1.81 / Khorfakkan 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.789 / def 1.483 | Khorfakkan attack 0.934 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.791 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Khorfakkan xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Al Urooba 1 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 34% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 45% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al Urooba and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Khorfakkan?
Record (2 meetings): Al Urooba 0W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Al Urooba and Khorfakkan in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Urooba's attack at 0.79x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Urooba's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
34%
2.94
21%
4.82
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
3.92
2.11
Khorfakkan xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.77
Clean Sheet
12%
8.22
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
4%
24.19
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al Urooba and 2.11 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Urooba's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Urooba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Urooba on 0.00 PPG, Khorfakkan on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Al Urooba are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 0.50 scored and 3.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Urooba and Khorfakkan runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khorfakkan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Khorfakkan won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Urooba's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Khorfakkan?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2025, when Khorfakkan 3-0 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Khorfakkan?
Khorfakkan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Urooba's recent matches and 50% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Urooba vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Urooba's recent games and 50% of Khorfakkan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Urooba and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al Urooba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al Urooba 1-2 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.81 xG and Khorfakkan 2.11 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Urooba fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.79 / defence 1.48 against Khorfakkan attack 0.93 / defence 1.28, drawn from 2/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 34% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 45%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 50%, Khorfakkan 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Urooba 0.00 PPG, Khorfakkan 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Al Urooba conceded 2 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.