Al Nasr 0-2 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 46%, yet in-form Sharjah FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al Nasr welcome Sharjah FC to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr at Al Maktoum Stadium this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 home games — 1.56 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al Nasr are significantly better at Al Maktoum Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 3D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sharjah FC are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al Nasr, 0 for Sharjah FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with Al Nasr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Nasr in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 47% versus Sharjah FC 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 74% | Sharjah FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.33 xG and Sharjah FC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.159 / defence 0.999 | Sharjah FC attack 0.760 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.209. Data: 19 Al Nasr games / 19 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 46% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Sharjah FC 3.85. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sharjah FC (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 33% | Sharjah FC 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 46% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Nasr 1.33 / Sharjah FC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.159 / def 0.999 | Sharjah FC attack 0.760 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sharjah FC xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Al Nasr 0 - 2 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 46% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Nasr and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Sharjah FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al Nasr 1W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 0W.
What form are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.57
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.25
0.92
Sharjah FC xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.92 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Nasr come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 4D 8L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Nasr's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sharjah FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Nasr are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 11W 3D 5L in their last 19 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.56 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when Al Nasr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
2
Draws
4
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Nasr see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 33%, Sharjah FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Nasr) and 44% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sharjah FC in 33%; Sharjah FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 44% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Nasr's matches and 44% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al Nasr and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Nasr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Nasr 0-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.33 xG and Sharjah FC 0.92 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Nasr fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.16 / defence 1.00 against Sharjah FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 46% | Draw 28% | Sharjah FC 26%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 74%, Sharjah FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.