Al Nasr 0-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dibba Al-Fujairah make the trip to Al Maktoum Stadium to face Al Nasr in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 19 December 2022 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Al Nasr (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Nasr are significantly better at Al Maktoum Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dibba Al-Fujairah have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Al Nasr. A 0.50 PPG lead over Dibba Al-Fujairah (0.60 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dibba Al-Fujairah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 50% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 50% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.48 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.863 / defence 1.102 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.560 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.344. Data: 36 Al Nasr games / 10 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 52% | Draw 26% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 21%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.76. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 40% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Dec 2022, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 52% | Draw 26% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Nasr 1.48 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.863 / def 1.102 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.560 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 12:45 on Monday 19 December 2022 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Al Nasr 0 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 52% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Nasr's attack at 0.86x the league average against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack (0.56x) against Al Nasr's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 36/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.78
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.30
0.83
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
5%
20.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.83 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 1W 3D 6L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form line: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games, 0.10 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.40 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 (0.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Al Nasr's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 0.75 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Nasr
2
Draws
2
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 0, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 50%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Nasr) and 25% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Dibba Al-Fujairah in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 25% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Nasr's recent games and 25% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dibba Al-Fujairah in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Al Nasr 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Nasr 0-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.48 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.83 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Nasr fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.86 / defence 1.10 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.56 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 52% | Draw 26% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 21%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Dibba Al-Fujairah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 50%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 0.60 PPG against 0.10. Form was overturned, with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.