Al Nasr 0-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Nasr host Al-Wasl FC at Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Nasr — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr's home record at Al Maktoum Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al Nasr are significantly better at Al Maktoum Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Al Nasr) versus 1.40 (Al-Wasl FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Nasr register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Al-Wasl FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Al-Wasl FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Al Nasr's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Wasl FC have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al Nasr in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Al-Wasl FC in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 63% and Al-Wasl FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 66% | Al-Wasl FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.93 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.113 / defence 1.012 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.973 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.472. Data: 41 Al Nasr games / 41 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Wasl FC 3.45. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 80% | Al-Wasl FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Nasr 1.93 / Al-Wasl FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.113 / def 1.012 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.973 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.781 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Wasl FC xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 14 February 2025 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al Nasr 0 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 48% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al Nasr 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Wasl FC 5W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (1.11) and Al-Wasl FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.34
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
3.38
1.45
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
11%
8.82
4%
23.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.45 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Nasr's recent record stands at 19W 8D 14L from 41 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 10D 5L across 41 games — 2.15 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Nasr heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Nasr have managed 12W 4D 4L from 20 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Al Nasr are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Wasl FC's away record stands at 12W 6D 2L across 20 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.39 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al-Wasl FC in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 26W 10D 5L in their last 41 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Nasr's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Nasr
1
Draws
7
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 2, Al-Wasl FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Nasr 1-1 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Nasr at 65%, Al-Wasl FC at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al Nasr and 75% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Nasr's games and 65% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Nasr's matches and 75% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Wasl FC defy the odds to beat Al Nasr 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al Nasr 0-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.93 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.45 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Nasr fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 29%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 66%, Al-Wasl FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.59. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.