Al Nasr 1-2 Al-Dhafra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Dhafra make the trip to Al Maktoum Stadium to face Al Nasr in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Al Nasr (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Maktoum Stadium, Al Nasr have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Dhafra's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al Nasr's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al-Dhafra's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Nasr lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Al-Dhafra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 50% versus Al-Dhafra 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 71% | Al-Dhafra 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.53 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.970 / defence 1.099 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.690 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.290. Al-Dhafra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Al Nasr's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Al Nasr games / 24 Al-Dhafra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 50% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 24%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Dhafra 4.17. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 40% | Al-Dhafra 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 50% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Nasr 1.53 / Al-Dhafra 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.970 / def 1.099 | Al-Dhafra attack 0.690 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al-Dhafra xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra kick off?
Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra?
Al Nasr 1 - 2 Al-Dhafra.
Where is Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra part of?
Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 50% chance of winning, Al-Dhafra a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Nasr and Al-Dhafra will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Dhafra?
Record (1 meetings): Al Nasr 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Dhafra 0W.
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Dhafra in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Al-Dhafra (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Nasr's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Dhafra's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Dhafra's attack (0.69x) against Al Nasr's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.89
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.51
0.98
Al-Dhafra xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
5%
19.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Al-Dhafra expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.98 for Al-Dhafra, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 9W 5D 10L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Dhafra's form line: 3W 7D 14L from 24 games, 0.67 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Dhafra.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
On the road, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Nasr are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Dhafra are on 0.92 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Al-Dhafra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Al-Dhafra in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 7D 14L in their last 24 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Al-Dhafra away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.42 PPG; Al-Dhafra away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Nasr have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Dhafra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Nasr
2
Draws
1
Al-Dhafra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Al-Dhafra?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 3, Al-Dhafra have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Al-Dhafra last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al-Dhafra 0-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Al-Dhafra?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Nasr see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 33%, Al-Dhafra 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Nasr) and 33% (Al-Dhafra).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Nasr have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Dhafra in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Al-Dhafra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Al-Dhafra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 42% of Al-Dhafra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Al-Dhafra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Nasr's recent games and 33% of Al-Dhafra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Al-Dhafra tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al-Dhafra in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Dhafra defy the odds to beat Al Nasr 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Dhafra beat Al Nasr 1-2 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.53 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.98 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Dhafra outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.69 / defence 1.23, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 50% | Draw 26% | Al-Dhafra 24%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Al-Dhafra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 71%, Al-Dhafra 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Al-Dhafra winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Nasr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.