Al-Jazira 4-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium plays host to Al-Jazira versus Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Baniyas SC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Jazira have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Baniyas SC managing just 2 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 4–0 with Al-Jazira winning.
The historical record gives Al-Jazira a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 57% versus Baniyas SC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 57% | Baniyas SC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.79 xG and Baniyas SC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.242 / defence 1.015 | Baniyas SC attack 0.926 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.444. Data: 51 Al-Jazira games / 51 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 28%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Baniyas SC 3.57. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 50% | Baniyas SC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Jazira 1.79 / Baniyas SC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.242 / def 1.015 | Baniyas SC attack 0.926 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Baniyas SC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira 4 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 46% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Jazira 5W | Draws 2 | Baniyas SC 2W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.24) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.93x) against Al-Jazira's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.87
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.14
1.36
Baniyas SC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
5%
21.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.36 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 22W 12D 17L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 14W 12D 25L from 51 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.68 PPG from 25 outings (13W 3D 9L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 9W 2D 14L from 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.14 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.68 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Jazira go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Jazira won 0-4 on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 6, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al-Jazira 4-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 44%, Baniyas SC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Jazira) and 52% (Baniyas SC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Jazira have failed to score in 28% of games; Baniyas SC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 44% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Jazira's matches and 52% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Baniyas SC 4-1 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.79 xG and Baniyas SC 1.36 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.24 / defence 1.01 against Baniyas SC attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 28%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 57%, Baniyas SC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.