Al-Jazira 1-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Al-Wasl FC at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 11 May 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Wasl FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Jazira 1.90 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Jazira, 4 for Al-Wasl FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 56% versus Al-Wasl FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 56% | Al-Wasl FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.15 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.338 / defence 0.971 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.052 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.446. Al-Jazira carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Al-Jazira games / 50 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Wasl FC 4.00. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 40% | Al-Wasl FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Jazira 2.15 / Al-Wasl FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.338 / def 0.971 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.052 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al-Wasl FC xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Jazira 1 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 52% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Jazira 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Wasl FC 4W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.34x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.45
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.63
1.48
Al-Wasl FC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
12%
8.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
3%
33.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.48 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 22W 12D 16L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 25W 13D 12L from 50 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.56 PPG, Al-Wasl FC on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (13W 3D 8L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 9W 6D 9L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.72 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 22W 12D 16L in their last 50 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.75 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Wasl FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Apr 2025, when Al-Wasl FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
5
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 3, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al-Jazira 1-2 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 42%, Al-Wasl FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al-Jazira and 67% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Jazira have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al-Wasl FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 67% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al-Jazira's matches and 67% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Wasl FC defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al-Jazira 1-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.15 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.48 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.34 / defence 0.97 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Wasl FC 25%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al-Wasl FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 56%, Al-Wasl FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.56 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.