Al-Jazira 3-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajman make the trip to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to face Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 6 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Jazira have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Al-Jazira's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Jazira lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 52% versus Ajman 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 57% | Ajman 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.81 xG and Ajman 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.196 / defence 1.153 | Ajman attack 0.782 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.270. Data: 21 Al-Jazira games / 21 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 53% | Draw 23% | Ajman 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Ajman 4.17. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 60% | Ajman 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 53% | Draw 23% | Ajman 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Jazira 1.81 / Ajman 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.196 / def 1.153 | Ajman attack 0.782 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ajman xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Al-Jazira 3 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Ajman part of?
Al-Jazira vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 53% chance of winning, Ajman a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Jazira and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Jazira 0W | Draws 0 | Ajman 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Ajman in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Ajman (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.78x) against Al-Jazira's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.34
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.96
1.15
Ajman xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
4%
25.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.15 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 13W 3D 5L from 21 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 9L across 21 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Jazira by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 9W 0D 1L from 10 games — 2.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ajman's away record stands at 3W 1D 6L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.24 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Ajman
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 13W 3D 5L in their last 21 games (2.00 PPG), while Ajman have gone 8W 4D 9L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Ajman away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.70 PPG; Ajman away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ajman in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 1-5 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 3, Ajman have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Ajman 1-1 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 60%, Ajman 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Jazira and 50% for Ajman. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ajman in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 30% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Jazira's matches and 50% of Ajman's.
Do Al-Jazira and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ajman in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Jazira run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Ajman 3-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.81 xG and Ajman 1.15 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajman landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.20 / defence 1.15 against Ajman attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 53% | Draw 23% | Ajman 24%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 57%, Ajman 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajman's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.