Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad Kalba versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 2W 2D 6L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad Kalba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 53% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.11 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.921 / defence 1.202 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.048 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.793. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.704 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 32 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 16% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.11 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 16% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.11 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.921 / def 1.202 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.048 / def 0.704 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.793 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 3 November 2023 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 16% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W | Draws 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack rating (0.92) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.05x) against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.26.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
16%
6.15
22%
4.60
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
3.37
2.26
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
6.15
16%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
10%
9.57
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
2%
58.88
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2.26 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 7D 14L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai sit at 2.22 PPG from 32 outings (21W 8D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 6W 2D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken 2.19 points per game from 16 outings (10W 5D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.09 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 21W 8D 3L in their last 32 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.25 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 5-1 on 11 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
4
Draws
6
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 62% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 31%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 69% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 62% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ittihad Kalba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.11 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.26 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.92 / defence 1.20 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.05 / defence 0.70, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 16% | Draw 22% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 59%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.