Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baniyas SC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Baniyas SC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baniyas SC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Baniyas SC are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 3 for Baniyas SC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67% versus Baniyas SC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% | Baniyas SC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.31 xG and Baniyas SC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.909 / defence 1.180 | Baniyas SC attack 0.873 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.382. Data: 48 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 48 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 34% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Baniyas SC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% | Baniyas SC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 34% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.31 / Baniyas SC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.909 / def 1.180 | Baniyas SC attack 0.873 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Baniyas SC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 2 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 34% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ittihad Kalba 3W | Draws 3 | Baniyas SC 3W.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Baniyas SC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.87
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.73
1.43
Baniyas SC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.43 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Al-Ittihad Kalba have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 13W 16D 19L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 13W 10D 25L from 48 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.15 PPG, Baniyas SC on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 8W 2D 14L from 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.08 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 13W 10D 25L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.12 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
3
Draws
4
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Baniyas SC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 67%, Baniyas SC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Ittihad Kalba) and 50% (Baniyas SC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 42% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's matches and 50% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baniyas SC edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.31 xG and Baniyas SC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.91 / defence 1.18 against Baniyas SC attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 34% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 40%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%, Baniyas SC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.15 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.