Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to take on Al-Ittihad Kalba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba have posted 1W 4D 0L at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Wahda FC — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Wahda FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Wahda FC trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% versus Al Wahda FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ittihad Kalba 30% | Al Wahda FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.84 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.815 / defence 1.019 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.051 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.317. Data: 10 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 10 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 19% | Draw 35% | Al Wahda FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 5.26 | Draw 2.86 | Al Wahda FC 2.13. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% | Al Wahda FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 19% | Draw 35% | Al Wahda FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.84 / Al Wahda FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.815 / def 1.019 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.051 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al Wahda FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 2 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 19% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 47% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad Kalba's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
19%
5.38
35%
2.89
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
2.25
1.41
Al Wahda FC xG
5.38
19%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
5%
22.02
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.9 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1.41 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 6D 2L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (5W 5D 0L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba's home form reads 1W 4D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Al Wahda FC's attacking output running into Al-Ittihad Kalba's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 5W 5D 0L in their last 10 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad Kalba at home: 1.40 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
2
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%, Al Wahda FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 40% for Al Wahda FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 40%; Al-Ittihad Kalba have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's games and 60% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 40% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad Kalba defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al Wahda FC 2-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.84 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 19% | Draw 35% | Al Wahda FC 47%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ittihad Kalba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 30%, Al Wahda FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.