Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Ajman – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Al-Ittihad Kalba take on Ajman.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba host Ajman at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajman stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajman — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Al-Ittihad Kalba's 0% and Ajman's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.83 xG and Ajman 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.822 / defence 1.040 | Ajman attack 0.740 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 0.844. Data: 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba games / 2 Ajman games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 35% | Draw 41% | Ajman 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.86 | Draw 2.44 | Ajman 4.17. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.48. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.48 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Ajman's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 35% | Draw 41% | Ajman 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 29% | xG Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.83 / Ajman 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.822 / def 1.040 | Ajman attack 0.740 / def 1.153 | league avg home 0.880 / away 0.844 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Ajman xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kick off?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1 - 1 Ajman.
Where is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman part of?
Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad Kalba a 35% chance of winning, Ajman a 24% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in?
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D. Ajman (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack at 0.82x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 24.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
41%
2.44
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
Total xG
1.48
0.65
Ajman xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.44
41%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.43
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.7 | 14.7 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 0.65 for Ajman, a combined total of 1.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajman by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad Kalba heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad Kalba are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ajman in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Ajman in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Ajman have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Al-Ittihad Kalba or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ajman in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad Kalba's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ittihad Kalba
1
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 4, Ajman have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-3 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad Kalba home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad Kalba play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent matches and 0% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad Kalba vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's recent games and 50% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Ajman in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba and Ajman finished level at 1-1 at Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad Kalba 0.83 xG and Ajman 0.65 xG, a combined 1.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Ajman attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad Kalba 35% | Draw 41% | Ajman 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad Kalba 0%, Ajman 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad Kalba scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.