Al-Dhafra 0-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Dhafra face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al-Dhafra. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 February 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Dhafra stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Dhafra at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium this season: 4W 0D 4L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.80 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Al-Dhafra's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Al-Dhafra.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
It is worth noting that Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Al-Dhafra trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 62% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 56% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 0.73 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.935 / defence 1.230 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.259 / defence 0.608. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.453. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.608 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Al-Dhafra games / 41 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 11% | Draw 18% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 72%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 9.09 | Draw 5.56 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Dhafra 62% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 11% | Draw 18% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Dhafra 0.73 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.935 / def 1.230 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.259 / def 0.608 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
46%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 11% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 72% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Dhafra 1W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Dhafra's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-3 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
11%
9.45
18%
5.70
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
0 – 3
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.98
2.25
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
9.45
11%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
11%
9.49
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
1%
89.68
35%
2.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 2.25 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Dhafra's recent record stands at 5W 2D 9L from 16 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 13W 2D 1L across 16 games — 2.56 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Dhafra heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Dhafra have managed 4W 0D 4L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Al-Dhafra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 6W 2D 0L across 8 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.12 scored and 0.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Dhafra have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 25%.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 69% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 13W 2D 1L in their last 16 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.50 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Al-Dhafra or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Dhafra have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 69%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
0
Draws
6
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-0 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al-Dhafra) and 38% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 88%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Dhafra's recent matches and 12% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Dhafra's matches and 38% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Al-Dhafra and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Dhafra 0-5 at Sheikh Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 0.73 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.25 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 2.25 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.26 / defence 0.61, drawn from 16/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 11% | Draw 18% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 72%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 56%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 69% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.