Al-Dhafra 0-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al-Dhafra welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Al Dhafra Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 February 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Dhafra have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Dhafra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Dhafra Stadium, Al-Dhafra have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Al-Dhafra are significantly better at Al Dhafra Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad Kalba's 1.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Al-Dhafra's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Dhafra, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Dhafra in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Dhafra 51% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Dhafra 54% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Dhafra 1.25 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Dhafra attack 0.836 / defence 1.138 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.816 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.508. Data: 41 Al-Dhafra games / 41 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Dhafra 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Dhafra 60% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Dhafra Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Dhafra 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Dhafra 1.25 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Dhafra attack 0.836 / def 1.138 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.816 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al-Dhafra xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Dhafra 0 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Al Dhafra Stadium.
What competition is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Dhafra a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Dhafra 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al-Dhafra (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Dhafra's attack rating (0.84) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al-Dhafra's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
33%
2.99
26%
3.84
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al-Dhafra xG
Total xG
2.65
1.40
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al-Dhafra and 1.40 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Al-Dhafra have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 7W 8D 26L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Dhafra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 12W 13D 16L from 41 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Dhafra.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Dhafra have posted 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 7D 9L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Dhafra are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.24 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Dhafra
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Dhafra have gone 7W 8D 26L in their last 41 games (0.71 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 13D 16L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Dhafra at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Dhafra's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Dhafra at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2025, when Al-Dhafra won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Dhafra's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Dhafra
3
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Dhafra have won 1, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-1 Al-Dhafra.
Who has won more matches between Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Dhafra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Dhafra 60%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Dhafra) and 45% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Al-Dhafra have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Dhafra home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Dhafra play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Dhafra's games and 55% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al-Dhafra's recent games and 45% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al-Dhafra have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad Kalba cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Dhafra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al-Dhafra 0-2 at Al Dhafra Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Dhafra 1.25 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.40 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Dhafra fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Dhafra attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Dhafra 33% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 41%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Dhafra 54%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Dhafra's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.