Ajman 2-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Ajman welcome Sharjah FC to Ajman Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 15 September 2022 at 14:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Ajman Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sharjah FC's 2.80 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Ajman's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ajman, 1 for Sharjah FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sharjah FC trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 46% versus Sharjah FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 54% | Sharjah FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.10 xG and Sharjah FC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.982 / defence 1.062 | Sharjah FC attack 1.149 / defence 0.720. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.282. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.720 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Ajman games / 28 Sharjah FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ajman 27% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Sharjah FC 2.08. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Ajman 60% | Sharjah FC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Sep 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 27% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Ajman 1.10 / Sharjah FC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.982 / def 1.062 | Sharjah FC attack 1.149 / def 0.720 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Sharjah FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 14:45 on Thursday 15 September 2022 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Ajman 2 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Ajman vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Sharjah FC part of?
Ajman vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 27% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ajman and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Ajman 1W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajman's attack rating (0.98) and Sharjah FC's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
27%
3.75
25%
3.97
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.66
1.56
Sharjah FC xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
17.95
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ajman and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ajman and 1.56 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajman's recent record stands at 10W 6D 12L from 28 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 4D 5L across 28 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 5W 5D 4L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 7W 4D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajman are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.82 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Early Season
Sharjah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 10W 6D 12L in their last 28 games (1.29 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 19W 4D 5L in their last 28 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.43 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Ajman or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ajman have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when Sharjah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ajman
2
Draws
5
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 3, Sharjah FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Ajman 3-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 57%, Sharjah FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ajman) and 43% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 43%; Ajman have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Ajman's recent matches and 43% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajman vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ajman's recent games and 43% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajman and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Ajman 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Ajman 2-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.10 xG and Sharjah FC 1.56 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ajman beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Sharjah FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.72, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 27% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 48%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 54%, Sharjah FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajman (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.