Ajman 0-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Ajman Stadium to take on Ajman. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 August 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ajman haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Ajman's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Ajman.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
It is worth noting that Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajman 62% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 54% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 1.67 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 1.094 / defence 1.019 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.055 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.586. Data: 26 Ajman games / 26 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ajman 38% | Draw 23% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 39%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 80% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 38% | Draw 23% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Ajman 1.67 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 1.094 / def 1.019 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.055 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.586 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Ajman 0 - 3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 38% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (4 meetings): Ajman 0W | Draws 1 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3W.
What form are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ajman (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajman's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
38%
2.64
23%
4.40
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Ajman xG
Total xG
3.38
1.71
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Ajman and 1.71 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajman's recent record stands at 13W 5D 8L from 26 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. Ajman haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 17W 6D 3L across 26 games — 2.19 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 7W 3D 3L from 13 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 8W 4D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajman are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.04 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajman have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Pre-Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 13W 5D 8L in their last 26 games (1.69 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 17W 6D 3L in their last 26 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.85 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Ajman or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Ajman
1
Draws
9
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Ajman 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ajman at 77%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Ajman and 69% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Ajman's games and 77% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ajman's matches and 69% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ajman.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Ajman 0-3 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 1.67 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.71 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ajman fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 38% | Draw 23% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 39%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 54%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.