Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Zorya Luhansk welcome Ruh Lviv to Slavutych-Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zorya Luhansk have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk at Slavutych-Arena this season: 6W 1D 2L from 9 home games — 2.11 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Slavutych-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Zorya Luhansk carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Zorya Luhansk, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Zorya Luhansk in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 53% versus Ruh Lviv 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zorya Luhansk 53% | Ruh Lviv 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.40 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.019 / defence 0.934 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.797 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.220. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Zorya Luhansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Zorya Luhansk games / 17 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 48% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 24%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Ruh Lviv 4.17. Zorya Luhansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 22% | Ruh Lviv 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Slavutych-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 48% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.40 / Ruh Lviv 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.019 / def 0.934 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.797 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Ruh Lviv xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Slavutych-Arena.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Slavutych-Arena.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 48% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 0W | Draws 1 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.02) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.67
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.31
0.91
Ruh Lviv xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.91 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Zorya Luhansk have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 11W 3D 3L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zorya Luhansk are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zorya Luhansk have posted 2.38 PPG from 8 outings (6W 1D 1L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ruh Lviv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.94 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 11W 3D 3L in their last 17 games (2.12 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 2.38 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Zorya Luhansk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when Zorya Luhansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Zorya Luhansk
2
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 4, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zorya Luhansk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Zorya Luhansk 25% BTTS, Ruh Lviv 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Zorya Luhansk and 12% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 38% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 12% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zorya Luhansk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk and Ruh Lviv finished level at 0-0 at Slavutych-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.40 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.91 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ruh Lviv landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 48% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 24%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 53%, Ruh Lviv 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.