Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vorskla Poltava host Ruh Lviv at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 1.40 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vorskla Poltava, 2 for Ruh Lviv and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–4 with Ruh Lviv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Ruh Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 52% | Ruh Lviv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.970 / defence 1.227 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.154 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.212. Data: 46 Vorskla Poltava games / 46 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 23% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 49%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Ruh Lviv 2.04. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 60% | Ruh Lviv 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 23% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.13 / Ruh Lviv 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.970 / def 1.227 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.154 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Ruh Lviv xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 23% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
Record (5 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 2 | Ruh Lviv 2W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Ruh Lviv's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
23%
4.29
27%
3.64
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.85
1.72
Ruh Lviv xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
4%
23.91
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.72 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 19W 10D 17L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 13W 18D 15L from 46 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 1.46 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 13W 18D 15L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.59 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Vorskla Poltava
4
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv?
From 8 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 50%, Ruh Lviv 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vorskla Poltava) and 50% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 46% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and Ruh Lviv finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.72 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 23% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 49%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 52%, Ruh Lviv 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.46 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.