Vorskla Poltava 1-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vorskla Poltava face Lviv.

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Fixture Analysis

Vorskla Poltava welcome Lviv to Stadion Mynai in Premier League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Friday 4 November 2022 at 11:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Vorskla Poltava — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Vorskla Poltava are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Lviv have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Lviv away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 0.70 (Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Vorskla Poltava, 0 for Lviv and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Dec 2021, ended Vorskla Poltava 1–1 Lviv — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Vorskla Poltava in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 52% versus Lviv 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 44% | Lviv 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.17 xG and Lviv 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.949 / defence 0.838 | Lviv attack 0.795 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.229. Lviv's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Vorskla Poltava's last 28 games and Lviv's last 27.

Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 44% | Draw 30% | Lviv 26%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.28 | Draw 3.30 | Lviv 3.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vorskla Poltava's last 10 home games and Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vorskla Poltava 30% (last 10 home games) | Lviv 40% (last 10 away games).

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