Vorskla Poltava 5-1 FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Vorskla Poltava welcome FC Mariupol to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 1L across 9 games at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
FC Mariupol — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Vorskla Poltava have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
FC Mariupol trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 43% versus FC Mariupol 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 43% | FC Mariupol 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.52 xG and FC Mariupol 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.064 / defence 0.964 | FC Mariupol attack 0.851 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.261. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Vorskla Poltava games / 14 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 48% | Draw 28% | FC Mariupol 25%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | FC Mariupol 4.00. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vorskla Poltava 33% | FC Mariupol 57%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 48% | Draw 28% | FC Mariupol 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.52 / FC Mariupol 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.064 / def 0.964 | FC Mariupol attack 0.851 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC Mariupol xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol?
Vorskla Poltava 5 - 1 FC Mariupol.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 48% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and FC Mariupol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and FC Mariupol in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. FC Mariupol (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against FC Mariupol's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, FC Mariupol's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.60
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.56
1.03
FC Mariupol xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.03 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vorskla Poltava's recent record stands at 8W 4D 2L from 14 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Mariupol, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 11L across 14 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Mariupol heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vorskla Poltava have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Mariupol's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.50 PPG overall record — FC Mariupol travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.21 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol in 64%.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
FC Mariupol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 2W 1D 11L in their last 14 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or FC Mariupol away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Mariupol away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or FC Mariupol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, FC Mariupol in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Vorskla Poltava 5-1 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and FC Mariupol?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 29%, FC Mariupol 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Vorskla Poltava) and 57% (FC Mariupol).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Mariupol in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play FC Mariupol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 57% of FC Mariupol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 57% of FC Mariupol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vorskla Poltava run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Mariupol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat FC Mariupol 5-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butov'skogo, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.52 xG and FC Mariupol 1.03 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against FC Mariupol attack 0.85 / defence 1.32, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 48% | Draw 28% | FC Mariupol 25%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 43%, FC Mariupol 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.